Wishing well: Difference between revisions

== Items ==

** (contains one of

** <item>greater potion</item>

** <item>pie</item>

** <item>sandwich</item>

** <item>carrot</item>

** <item>cherry</item>

** <item>blue elf cloak</item>

** <item>summon scroll</item>,

** making it relatively useless even for beginners. See below.)

== Finding probability & needed money ==

There are 12 different types of rewards that are all exactly same likely to get. If your karma is positive, the chance of getting ''anything'' is at least 0.05 ('''5%''').

This means that the chance of ''getting what you want'' is at least 0.05/12 ≈ 0.004167 ≈ '''0.4%'''.

When using 30 gold per attempt, with positive karma, you will likely not need more than (1/probability)*30 money to get what you want. Because of the high number of attempts needed, this is a quite accurate "maximum" value. That is (12/0.05)*30 = '''7200 money''', which is acceptable for the rare items.

=== You want something specific from a ''present''? ===

Now it becomes expensive, don't do that. Really, don't do that. None of the items in the present are worth the wishing well money:

The chance of getting one specific item from a present is at least (0.05/12)/7 ≈ 0.0006 ≈ '''0.06%'''. That's '''1680 attempts''' or '''50400 money''' on average. Fifty thousand money! Forget this!