Wishing well

Draft: Please help expanding this page! :)

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Items

• <item>money</item> (from 1 to 100)
• <item>wood</item>
• <item>iron ore</item>
• <item>gold nugget</item>
• <item>potion</item>
• <item>greater potion</item>
• <item>home scroll</item>
• <item>sapphire</item>
• <item>carbuncle</item>
• <item>present</item>
  • (contains one of
  • <item>greater potion</item>
  • <item>pie</item>
  • <item>sandwich</item>
  • <item>carrot</item>
  • <item>cherry</item>
  • <item>blue elf cloak</item>
  • <item>summon scroll</item>,
  • making it relatively useless even for beginners. See below.)
• <item>horned golden helmet</item> (automatically bound to you because of its rarity)
• <item>dark dagger</item> (automatically bound to you because of its rarity)

Finding probability & needed money

There are 12 different types of rewards that are all exactly same likely to get. If your karma is positive, the chance of getting anything is at least 0.05 (5%).

This means that the chance of getting what you want is at least 0.05/12 ≈ 0.004167 ≈ 0.4%.

When using 30 gold per attempt, with positive karma, you will likely not need more than (1/probability)*30 money to get what you want. Because of the high number of attempts needed, this is a quite accurate "maximum" value. That is (12/0.05)*30 = 7200 money, which is acceptable for the rare items.

You want something specific from a present?

Now it becomes expensive, don't do that. Really, don't do that. None of the items in the present are worth the wishing well money:

The chance of getting one specific item from a present is at least (0.05/12)/7 ≈ 0.0006 ≈ 0.06%. That's 1680 attempts or 50400 money on average. Fifty thousand money! Forget this!